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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: S. Wallace Slough who wrote (22758)	7/28/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: cluka	Read Replies (1) of 25960

From ML CYMI reported 2Q'99 revenues of $43.4 million and EPS of d$0.05 versus our estimates of $42 million and d$0.07. Orders in the quarter were $51.7 million versus our estimate of $60 million and down modestly sequentially from the $53.3 million in the previous quarter. The B:B ratio was 1.2. We are increasing our FY'99 and FY'00 estimates slightly. New Old 1999 Revenues (mns) $204 $192 1999 EPS $0.07 $0.02 2000 Revenues (mns) $315 $305 2000 EPS $1.24 $1.20 Our current model assumes a decline in CYMI's global market share; 90% to 70% over the next 2 years. The assumption could prove too aggressive as Komatsu, the main competitor, is struggling as it moves into production. We think our gross margin assumptions are also conservative. We project that margins will be 43% by the 4Q'00 at $90 million well behind company's expectations of 48-50%. We have a $37 price objective assuming a 30 multiple on 2000 earnings of $1.24.

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