Sam, I'm a little surprised to see virtually no commentator/article recognize the following: Probably 80-90% of 2nd and 3rd world countries are ill-prepared for Y2K, Probably (at least) 25% of 1st world countries are ill-prepared, another 15% only moderately so...
As we get closer and closer to January 1, 2000, it stands to reason that some, if not much money will flow from these countries (investors) into the safety (haven) of the 30-year bond...(look at the turmultous period from July-October last year)...Given this, and the fact that I am hard-pressed to think Greenspan will raise rates before 2000- due to Y2K, and the weak recoveries abroad (and given that economic data (GDP, consumer confidence) will continue to weaken in my view), the 30-year bond is unlikely to do anything but GO DOWN from the current 6% level...(I grant you we could get a slight run up going into the August FOMC, but after that, I can't see the bond remaining above 6%...and I reckon we will see at least 5.50% before the end of the year)....
And we all know what this means for big cap, growth stocks <G>
OK, I'm standing firm on this one...check back with me... |
