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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 163.32

+2.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (337)	7/28/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (4) of 13582

To get back on topic.... I don't think you have said anything in disagreement. In hind sight, it is very easy for us to say how UNDER VALUED QC was and investing in QC was a slam dunk. At current price, all I am saying that QC is no longer trading at a discount, but FULLY VALUED. While I dont know if the Q will return what it has over the last six years, I think that prospects for future growth are still HUGE. However, as before, the Q faces considerable execution risk (LindyBill may have had it right when he said that investing after the Q court victory might have been the best time). Just one scenario in which the Q would continue its phenomenal growth over the next couple of years....W-CDMA turns out to be the vapourware that Maurice has said it will be. At a minimum this would force NTT Docomo to convert to CDMA2000 due to the competition from DDI/IDO. The European community might attempt to wait for W-CDMA to be perfected but the rest of the world would most likely change their plans to CDMA2000. At this point who might be expected to supply the vast majority of ASIC's for 3G? Imagine if you will, the Q supplying 40-50m ASIC's per quarter sometime in the year 2002. Each of these would be at a considerable premium to the current ASIC's. Oh yeah even if you consider just next year, the $4 estimate for next year is way too low. Sorry to interrupt the current flow of posts....we now return to your reguluarly scheduled broadast (well we made it through almost 350 posts, not too bad). Slacker

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