My take on the report is this:
1. Expectations were $.34, which they beat by a penny. They said that they would make earnings, so presumably this is priced in.
2. Sales fell sequentially from $56m last quarter to $55.2 million. This is not good, but is presumably priced in. Myself I was looking for $57 million, so I was a little disappointed, but not badly.
3. BTB was .97, which is not good, but may be priced in.
On the whole I think that the market was pricing this company expecting a disaster. We saw several downgrades based on weakness in the disk sector. VECO did not have a stellar quarter, but it was no disaster either. My guess is we see some estimate reductions for the remainder of the year based on the BTB, but no changes in ratings. I think the stock may open weak, but may well rally later in the day. I would expect this stock to continue to trade in the 28-35 range for awhile.
Really the big question is what kind of face they put on in the conference call. They are nicely profitable, but need to project an image of future growth. It would help if they indicate in the conference call that they are seeing some good growth in the semi equipment sector, and that they expect that sales in the semi-sector will lead to overall sales increases in the second half of the year.
Carl |
