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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: marc ultra who wrote (7225)7/28/1999 10:24:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
marc wrote: "We have rising rates and relatively tight money, economic growth that is too fast particularly with the limited labor force and sentiment that while maybe not at extremes suggests complacency at these valuations. "

Greenspan said that our current state of high productivity stems from two sources: technological innovation and management streamlining. Both have reduced the cost of labour.

So, the labour market is extremely tight. Wages have been going up--I heard a radio news item that said some fast food outlets have closed due to inability to find workers and others have paid signing bonuses. But, so far the increase cost of labour has been offset by increases in productivity: if a worker gets a 4c raise but his/her productivity increases at 4c or more, then there will be no inflation from the labour market. That has been the story so far in this business cycle.

The problem will occur when the cost of labour raises faster than the raise in productivity.

So, I am not familiar with the actual numbers. What are the recent rates of increase in a) hourly wage and b) productivity?

Ciao,
David Todtman
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