VectorVest Stock Analysis of Xircom Inc.
PRICE: XIRC closed on 07/28/1999 at $32.25 per share.
VALUE: XIRC has a Value of $50.7 per share. Value is the foundation of the
VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based
upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and
financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in
the computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes
up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a
stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): XIRC has an RV of 1.5. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of
1.5 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock
compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV
ratings above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater
than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and
forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases, however, a stock's
RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when a
stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an above average
earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and the
investor is banking on future earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This
information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price
appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high
P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above
average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): XIRC has an RS rating of 1.07. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00,
an RS of 1.07 is fair. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor
(one who is buying stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one
who is lending money to the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial
and operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the
key factors used in the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio,
capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are also considered,
but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of
0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than
the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and
riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): XIRC has an RT rating of 1.44. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00,
an RT of 1.44 is excellent. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It
analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over the
last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock.
Once a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that
trend for the short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should
the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point. When warranted,
it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the stock's Price is
in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): XIRC has a VST-Vector rating of 1.34. On a scale of 0.00 to
2.00, an VST of 1.34 is excellent. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value,
Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks
withlow RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best
combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this
problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock in the
VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations
of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital
application.
GRT (Growth Rate): XIRC has a GRT of 28 % per year. This is excellent. GRT
stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each
week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the
stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase
more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): XIRC has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the
cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters
are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price,
and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately
10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's price is approximately
10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's,
and sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: XIRC has a Stop-Price of 28.00 per share. This is 4.25 or 13.2%
belowits current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for
Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These
Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are
fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is
above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): XIRC does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on annual,
regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement. Special
distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in
Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): XIRC has a DY of 0 percent. This is above the current
market average of percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a
percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): XIRC has an EY of 6%. This is above the current market
average of %. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed
as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): XIRC has an EPS of $1.94 per share. EPS stands
for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a
combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year
earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): XIRC has a P/E ratio of 16.66. This ratio is
computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): XIRC has a GPE of 1.68. This ratio suggests that
This ratio suggests that XIRCis undervalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure
of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio
(P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and
vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value.
The RV of 1.5 for XIRCis excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): XIRC has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is
poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and
paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values
above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): XIRC does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest
system that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk
(RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks
are classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are
below average in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): XIRC has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth
is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's historical financial performance and
the board's current outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): XIRC has a YSG-Vector of
0. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0 is very poor. VectorVest
combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter.
YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the
highest YSG-Vector values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and
Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term
growth.
VOL(100)s: XIRC traded 237900 shares on 07/28/1999.
AVG VOL(100)s: XIRC has an Average Volume of 362883. Average Volume is
50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: XIRC had a Volume change of -34.4% from its 50 day moving average
volume.
OPEN: XIRC opened trading at $33.25 per share on 07/28/1999.
HIGH: XIRC traded at a high of $33.25 per share on 07/28/1999.
LOW: XIRC traded at a low of $32.19 per share on 07/28/1999.
CLOSE: XIRC Closed trading at $32.25 per share on 07/28/1999.
% PRC: XIRC showed a Price change of -1.9% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: XIRChas been assigned to the Computer (Networks) Group.
VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
XIRC has about average safety with well above average upside potential. It reflects a
stock which is likely to give well above average, relatively consistent returns over the
long term. |
