Hi T.Bill,
<<How much can we hope to learn from the 1st successful hole in terms of the total potential reserves at ELH? Or, in other words, how many holes must be drilled before we have a reasonable estimate (say in the 1 TCF to 15 TCF range)...>
An excellent question. Unfortunately, I can't give you a simple answer because it of course will depend upon what each well drilled actually encounters. For example, if each well penetrates 2,000 feet of porous gas bearing sand (Sigh !! We can dream !!) then a couple of well positioned wells could go a long way towards proving up 5+ TCF. But, if the wells only come in with say 500 feet of porous gas bearing sand, then it will take a few more wells to "prove" up the mega reserves that most people anticipate.
With the data that will be available from the first 3 wells (i.e. about year end or early 2000), the JV should be able to provide a fairly decent reserve estimate. For the very, very, very little that it is worth, I believe that by year end the JV will be in a position to define a minimum "Proven plus Probable" reserve of about 3 TCF. Additional "Potential" reserves will likely be in the order of an additional 10-12 TCF. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL JUST MY PERSONAL SPECULATION \ DREAMING. BWDIK !!!!
Then, there is all that potential in the other prospects !!! WOW !!
To counter my "enthusiasm", I must remind you that some analysts apparently ascribe only a 20% chance of the ELH prospect even being commercially viable. I have no idea in Hell what these guys are thinking, but that is another opinion that you should keep in mind. BTW, I do not believe the JV participants share the analysts' opinion since the JV is about to spud another $8-10MM U.S. well late this week....and they have also indicated a 3rd well will spud early-mid September. This doesn't suggest to me that the JV has reservations about "commercial viability" !! BWDIK.
Have a great day.
Later,
grayhairs |
