Here is a WAG about what Jerry is up to:
If you look at eetimes.com
there is a discussion of how various companies are doing in terms of implementing copper. Throughout the article it is said that copper has been a disaster for many companies, but that Motorola and IBM are doing pretty well (of course AMD uses Motorola's process). Some of the Taiwanese semicon manufacturers are also doing well. Intel is only mentioned as having decided to wait. My guess is that the half of the Industry with problems with copper is pretty much Intel, Intel, Intel, and Intel.
Some unofficial comments from AMD have included statements like "yields as good as aluminum" and AMD ordered a bunch of steppers, etc. right after Atiq Raz left. That would have seemed like an obvious move, not something to quit over, so what is intended? I think that the AMD business plan is that by January 1, 2000, its pricing structure will be as follows:
1000 MHZ 699
933 MHZ 525
866 MHZ 399
800 MHZ 249
733 MHZ 199
With Intel's 733 coppermine topping out at: 199 Jerry intends to do to Intel next year what was done to AMD this year. Intel has annual deprecation costs of nearly 4 billion dollars - and of course they have employees to pay, materials to buy, etc. If their ASP heads under $100, they are going to lose a lot of money - this would impact their mainboard and chipset business as well.
Now this sounds like reaching for the moon, and if anything, ANYTHING, goes wrong at that brand new, untested, copper only FAB, it'll be a disaster. But I'm guessing that this is the present game plan.
With the newly invigorated VIA / CYRIX keeping the bottom end competitive, Intel would be squeezed pretty tight.
Just a wild ass guess as to what may be happening. |
