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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.76

+1.2%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: gpowell who wrote (13142)	7/30/1999 1:34:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (3) of 29970

You say you know little about economics, so how could you have any conviction about an accurate assessment of productivity? This is one of the most difficult of all to measure. To set policy based on this approaches the absurd. It isn't necessary when you stop targeting interest rates. Greenspan is just guessing about productivity. That isn't the source of the current prosperity. The source is the savings in human psychology accrued over 20 years of distributed depression that is now being squandered by a collection of old fools sitting in places they don't belong neither by knowledge, experience, nor wisdom. The technological advances are only changing the setting. They don't change productivity. Changes in productivity are strictly due to human psychology, what you and I are willing to do to produce. It is a matter of courage to demand compensation in excess of output versus the cooperation of the central bank to allow the people to steal from each other. That courage would always be zero under a regime of free markets in money. Greenspan has fallen into "new era" thinking. The reason is that he and the rest of them never had a clue about what caused inflation during the '70s. Neither did Volcker or any of Fed bank presidents. They all believe it is only a matter of timing rate increases and decreases, but they have proven repeatedly that they can never get it right. Why persist with something that doesn't work? Stupidity. This is the best human intellect as personified by our glorious universities has been able to concoct, but it is flawed from the outset. It is inherently impossible to do. They have a job to do and by god they're going to do it to you. What they don't understand is the phenomenon called the will to inflate. It is launched when the central bank pursues a coarse to create prosperity and it ends when every citizen is at every other's throat. These men are paid to do good to the world. They do it with what everyone believes is the only way, with money, and what they create is hell on earth. 20 years of depression. That's worse than the three years of the '30s. It's insidious and it destroys generations just like the Soviet Union. You think there is some respite in business's ability to lower cost? You can't lower costs when your costs are rising. There's no room left. There's no slack in the system now so there's no ability to absorb costs. That is what happens when you're in an extended period of flat costs and then you transition to rising costs. Your margins disappear. This is what 2nd Q earnings are saying. Labor is eating up the margin. Therefore, it is certain business will fail to find better earnings. You don't think a market meltdown is a certainty? You don't know what a bear market is. It means that there's no capitulation. There's only bottoms which don't hold.

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