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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Scumbria who wrote (66922)7/30/1999 8:48:00 AM
From: Kevin K. Spurway  Read Replies (1) of 1574462
 
Re: "I'm pleased to report that as of this morning, I shifted my entire portfolio into AMD. I am looking forward to a very profitable couple of months."

Are you sure you want to do this?

I think the chances of AMD ruining (yes, RUINING) the x86 market are pretty good over the next six to nine months. That means no winners, only losers--Intel and AMD. Here's my take on probabilities:

AMD "wins": AMD takes a pat of the profitable high end, stops bleeding: .2

Intel "wins": Intel jacks up their voltage, solves their process problems, and outmarkets AMD, relegating Athlon to the midrange or worse: .3

Everyone loses: Price war in the high end. Intel cuts off its nose, etc. List prices on the highest MHz desktop chips fall to the $200 range. .5

Not a scenario where I'm putting all my money in AMD.

Kevin
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