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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 691.88-0.3%Jan 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (21511)7/30/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
My server went down last night so I was blind all night. I just was able to get my stuff quickly done but no in depth looking but I have to say we are at a make or break point IMO. Several supports were broken yesterday in numerous stocks and sector indexes which pretty much makes any hope of a mid term uptrend impossible. Still I would not be looking for much stronger falls here unless there is further selling after this morning's bounce. If we break below the middle tines from here on out, I have that we should fall to around 10350 DOW, 1270 SPX, 2350 NASDAQ and a 655 OEX by mid August. We are right now at the make or break point here.

I do expect at least a short term rally here due to fund inflows and that the big money didn't really have time to get short before yesterday's quick hard drop. GE was killed and WCOM and MSFTs weakness I think pretty much sums up the market's weak internals. New lows are quickly expanding shwing the depth of this pullback. As for complaicency, I have to admit I keep looking to buy this dip but can't find much that even hints at being bullish in the charts. My gut keep saying buy something but my charts have me saying no.

Of interest is that I have the Transports, FPP and UD Dollar basically at important supports here so I am expecting a bounce but I have no idea what news they will manufacture toexplain it. The rest of the indexes could just stay inthe sideways range Don speaks of or break down and implode. I am using caution on my dollar chart though due to the switching of data providers and their calling the index by a different symbol.

Time to go to work, the morning jump up will be interesting to see if it is met with selling, low volume or is embraced and retraces at least of yesterday's losses.

Good Luck,

Lee
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