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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65531)7/30/1999 1:54:00 PM
From: valueminded  Read Replies (3) of 132070
 
Mike/William:

If you (or anyone else would feel so inclined) Please compare/contrast the 1929-1933 bear market with the 1972/1973. AS I see it, 1972/1973 was inflation driven and 1929/1933 deflation driven.

The correlary is which situation compares most closely to our present situation and why. (Yes I am still struggling with will it be a deflationary or inflationary spiral. In my opinion, if the market has a sudden crash, I believe deflation and want to own bonds, if it has a slow grind, i believe inflation and bonds and stocks both get crushed). I still lean towards the inflationary scenario for some reasons: 1. our tendency as politicians will be to print as much money as it takes to correct the situation. 2. everyone believes the deflation scenario so the contrarian in me says inflation. 3. we have already created too much money and the only way to adjust the money supply down to an acceptable level in which the money available is chasing an appropriate amount of goods is for bonds and stocks to take a beating. (imo)

Appreciate yore well reasoned and thoughtful feedback. thanks
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