MP, I'll second your thoughts on the Q; however, that being said, brokers don't make money by holding stocks for clients...To Every Season, Churn, Churn, Churn, There is inflation, Churn, Churn, Churn, and to every portfolio comes a sell-off...do..do..do..do....A time to call, a time to put, a time to ..you get my drift.
Last year, to my recollection, the sell-off began shortly after Q reported (in fact, the past 2 to 3 years)...and everyone talked about PC slowdown..This year it's not a PC slowdown, but less ASP per PC. We also had Asian Contagion/Brazil etc. No one seems to be bringing up these topics right now, but I suspect, if WS wants to orchestrate a sell-off, we'll see everyone spreading FUD in the next month or so.
One other difference last year, was that wireless wasn't red hot. That being said, I think that this sector will be buffered somewhat from a total sell-off panic scenario. Even if it falls with the pack, QCOM should recover faster. I don't think the day traders would let this opportunity pass them up, should it arise. We also have the shorts, waiting to buy in sometime. They still represent about 15-18 million shares?
Last year, the market bottomed around 10/19....and began to fully recover quickly. Will we see a pro-longed effect from Y2K? As long as we believe it could happen, it will.
Just my 2 cents....I'm not cash long right now, but debating......
-metman |
