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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (21595)	7/30/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom	Read Replies (5) of 99985

Haim, I have one tenet I always go by in this market. It's actually a two-parter: A) Less than 1/1000 of 1% of anyone in this market makes outsized gains consistently. Note LT Capital and the guy that got run over buying calls last July. (Or was it puts in June?). Anyway, I've never seen it where shorts totally won nor longs winning the day all the time. B) Everyone right now is expecting August to be a horrible month as it always is. The vix is very high and everyone's buying puts. Well, as you know, very rarely is "everyone" right. August might be a bad month for longs, but not before life becomes very painful for the shorts. No one (and I mean no one) can predict this market for more than a few days at a time (since those with large amounts of capital can move this market at any time for a few days). While the averages are not far from the highs, most stocks are very far from the highs. The nets just had their worst month in a year. Everyone is predicting the death of the nets. Ain't gonna happen. They might fall 20% more but they'll go right back up to sucker more people in. You see, stocks have to keep going up so that the big guys can take more money from the little guy. The day the bull stops running, there won't be any more little guys for the big guys to rob. Oh yeah. And money managers are just sheep. Case in point: Intel. Anyone that's ever sold it has left money on the table. Yet, how many times have they dumped it thinking the party was over? Now, they're all paying up for it since their fundholders would be pissed if they didn't have it. Makes a lot of sense, huh? Duh. Just my two cents.

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