Gary, the points raised in the 'tirade' are unfortunately very valid. and while i agree with you that from a trader's point of view the direction of the market matters very little as long as he manages to 'predict' it, we should all be worried by the possible economic consequences of a sudden unexpected end of the bull market. as is well known, public stock market participation has never been as high as it is now, while the savings rate is at a record low and personal and corporate indebtedness are at record highs. thus it is no big stretch to argue that a severe bear market would lead to an equally severe recession, if not depression. it would engulf the whole world, which right now uses the U.S. as a dumping ground for it's exports. since the recovery of the world ex U.S. will become a mirage if the economic powerhouse falters, it is hard to be cavalier about a possible market downturn. lastly let me address your remark that the nutz will never collapse because 'everyone expects it'. hardly everyone does. the received WS wisdom is that there will be a rousing recovery in the nutz come fall due to the excitement over the holiday season. this may well turn out to be true. however, if the past is any guide, the bottom always falls out from especially manic sectors of the market; the examples, as you surely know, abound.
the good man worrying about the mania will, as you say, one day be right. hopefully the negative potential of that day will not be fully realized.
until then, good trading to you too.
regards,
hb |
