Bobby, i believe that in fact sentiment is not as bearish as the post from the YHOO thread would indicate. while put/call ratios have been high recently, actual put volume wasn't all that great, which leads me to suspect that it is the professional and 'smart' money that's buying the puts as a hedge.
what's more, the polls show that either bullishness actually grew after the initial one-week slide (AAII poll) or outright bearishness receded (Investores Intelligence poll); the Consensus Inc. poll of futures traders showed a measly 1% decline. this leaves the anecdotal evidence; granted, on the SI threads we frequent, sentiment has turned more bearish. but the purported mutual fund inflows last week and the commentary by analysts and presenters on CNBC all indicate complacency.
witness the continued references to "there is a general feeling that there is no panic selling" and "although we are down,trading is dull", etc.;some of the interviewees opine that we may correct a little bit more, but assure us the bull is intact and a buying opportunity is therefore coming up, several times a day overweighting of tech stocks is recommended and so on. well, they may be right about a buying opportunity coming up.
btw, there were two fund managers on who had a slightly different tune on offer. one was M.Katz, who oversees a global fund and the name of the other escapes me. anyway, they pointed out that the 'earnings growth' of the tech bellwethers is largely a mirage, as stock option schemes are not properly accounted for and that therefore their already lofty p/e's are in reality even higher. obviously the presenter (i think it was R. Insana) was somewhat surprised that he had a fund manager there who refused to sing the praises for the tech stocks. but these are occasional rays of light in what is otherwise an unmitigated tout-fest.
regards,
hb |
