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Technology Stocks : Cadence Design Systems
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To: Carlo Colatosti who wrote (471)7/31/1999 3:50:00 AM
From: nick cash  Read Replies (1) of 668
 
i agree with a lot of what you said, but disagree as well. the stock is under heavy distribution, not accumulation. i got in on the last fall @ ~11 5/8. 2 weeks ago we were breaking out on heavy volume and i would have given the stock a 85% chance of filling the gap up over 20 in very short order. then...... with all the bad news 'already on the table', the company misses already low balled estimates by a mile and gives horrid forward guidance- that would be the other shoe that dropped. cdn is in a market leadership position but is acting a hell of a lot more like a cpq than a csco. they're very slow to move and it's showing. i would have thought that the rebound in semi equip would translate into some optimism from the company. others are starting to see an uptick in activity- not cdn, not yet anyway.

technically, we have a nice test of the bottom here as long as we hold. look @ a long term chart, a break here and we could see 6 or 7 if the overall market rolls over. if i wasn't already in, i'd take 1/2 a position here. as it is, given the market, i won't add here. obviously i'm hoping we hold here. if we don't i'll probably bite the bullet and take the hit. the next several days will be critical for both cdn and the market.

disclosure: i'm long cdn in my accounts. all is imo only and not a recommendation......nick
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