Trader J's Inner Circle Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle

NVDA 177.80

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Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Trader J who wrote (18343)	7/31/1999 1:20:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) of 56535

Jeff, one thing we know is that anything can happen in this market, often when you least expect it. However, I use myself as a barometer. I am a bullish position trader looking for values and needing those oversold stocks to pop back and rise again. As we enter August I find my strategy not working. Your daytrading works for small bites but can backfire and takes 24 hour vigilance (not to mention Level 2 ticker watching). As I am going to Europe for two weeks in August, I've reached the point where I'm going to capitulate for awhile. So I just sold all my highly speculative stocks (no internets left) and now hold only strong earners with low PE's which have been beaten down to the ground. And a few blue chips like T and LLY. I know AOL is at 95 but that recent low is going to be tested a lot unless they come out with some surprising good news. The fact is that the period from August until October I had always seen as being very risky. And gas prices just went up again out here in California which is my #1 personal gauge for inflation. So why fight it? My point is that instead of battling the malaise I think I'll take a breather for awhile. I'm still invested but only in stocks I don't see going down any farther lke PSFT at 13. I have a few I'll be watching to buy like BEBE if they dip. I also like the premier drug stocks if they fall any further. As for techs and nets I'll wait to see if MSFT or AOL can fall back to $80. It's possible that could happen. Then have $100,000 buying power to load the boat for 2000 and maybe double my money with select trashed techs. We could indeed see mini rallies next week and beyond. Very short term you can make some money here trading, but I need to have lots of cash available when the shit hits the fan and my prior prediction that we'd hit DOW 12000 this summer now seems wrong. I could be mistaken but I'd rather just wait until NO ONE wants to buy, then buy and hold for months not days. I believe Y2K will not be a crisis and that 2000 will be a bullish year. Therefore this is an opportunity starting much earlier than I thought to be ready. I know what you mean. Under normal circumstances many of those stock picks of yours look juicy right now. But with SDTI for instance (a great value stock) its recent high is 23 and it's at 18 now. Without positive volumn why would it approach 23 again near-term? Eventually it's probably a $50 stock but I think there's plenty of time to pick up that and many others at steep discounts. I will be watching this market carefully. Let's let each other know when bearishness gets so depressing that quality stocks seem worthless (like last October). Let's keep a hoard of cash handy and move then. It may come a lot sooner than October this year but it will come IMHO. The Fed will probably raise rates a bit on August 24th. So maybe a week or so after that it could happen. Maybe September up then October back down on jinx fears. Then more buying ops through tax-sellin season and Y2K panic season into the New Year when everything will suddenly look free and clear again (hopefully). Nobody has a crystal ball, but when a bull like me starts cashing it in I'd warn others to be very wary. I know Tokyo Joe's 95% cash (or so he posts) and Rande is very bearish short-term. I got out a week late but I'm mostly out now and waiting - waiting. Should be interesting.

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