Ken,
I found that letter very disturbing, because a minister wrote it. I was hoping that the churches would serve as leaders in a time of crisis.
I am also disappointed that so many people are only planning for one Y2K outcome, be it a BITR, recession, depression or TEOTWAWKI. I think that people should look at all possible outcomes and have a plan for each one. Then as each scenario develops, you will be prepared.
It is possible for Y2K to start as only a BITR, but then as the repercussion of the small problems start to cascade, we could easily slide into a recession. This scenario is being set up by the Y2K preparedness of the U.S. (all a few other countries), but the severe lagging in preparation of other countries.
The step from recession to depression could be cause by another ripple effect – a crash in the stock market or problems in the international banking system. If banks start suffering from liquidity problems because of an increase in the number of bad loans and bankruptcies, we could have a replay of the 1930's and banking holidays. That would only feed any existing economic problems.
At this point in this possible declining spiral, the panic of people could bring about the final scenario – TEOTWAWKI. This path of thinking does not require a serious breakdown of our infrastructure cause by the embedded systems problem occurring suddenly in January 2000. It can build up over time. I believe that your “fault-tolerance” of systems line of thinking supports this possible path to TEOTWAWKI.
Because this is a possible outcome of Y2K, I hope that people plan for each step of this scenario. Notice that it does not require being prepared for total social collapse in January, but rather at some latter unknown time. All you need is a plan for each stage of this scenario.
B.K. |
