Thanks..we are now going to improve and expand our contribution to the 9 to fivers and even the professionals (doctor, lawyer, tennis instructor) who have a hard time tracking our picks. We have done a very 'unscientific survey' of some of my subscribers since April 1999 and a second group who have basically used the 'buy and hold' theory (2-3 months) of the 'better earnings plays' and their return was in most case similar or better than our daytraders (I emphasize nonscientific, because although Market Gems espounses the hit n' run theory for internet stocks especially IPO's some have used their own strategies (holding a longer time interval with results that reach extremes in losses and on some occasions in gains as well, so an average there doesn't carry that much weight).
Also when these stocks were 'purchased' by our intermediate holders they were just coming out of consolidation stages and were prepped for some nice growth. They also had the extra advantage of being oversold in some cases with a good earnings report that helped the stock along. Of course they had to have tracked these stocks and 'churned' them after average 2-3 month holds.
Instructions had to be given that if after the consolidation and the earnings report the stock was up nicely (say 10 points) but failed to make newer highs (which usually is what occurs as they are getting ready for a new advance like EFII given the a) breaking out of consolidaions 2) good earnings report it might be time to just sell. Could be in a pre-correction.
ETEK, HLIT,FRNT,FWRD,ENTU,GALT,CPRT,PCLE,LXK,ZLC,KSWS,WJCO,COO,CEFT,PWR, and EFII were examples of some that were called and 'suggested' as intermediate holds, but ETEK around July started sliding and even casual look at your portfolio (as opposed to 15 minute charts or even hourly checkups) would have indicated a sell was in order. Others who were intent on some more volatile we did mention NSOL,BVSN,BRCM AOL,MSPG,SONE,EXPD,AHAA, TAN.. but we drew the line with NITE, SWS, SDLI, TBFC, CMGI, EXDS,EPAY,CNET,GNET (you remember I did say at last week of April I would divest myself of all net stocks until next earnings period)I personally included some volatile drug/med supplies but did not include that for the gemmers that were full time workers (ie. CNTO, CHRX, ADRX,SEPR,AZA,MDT etc).. I also kept away from financials, brokerages, and even retailers,
That is why Long John will be once again tracking our 'better earnings calls' hopefully repeaters once again to see how they fare as intermedaite holds (or even short term holds up to 1 month) until their next report season in October. This time however we are doing it in a statistical, analytical way so we can keep much more accurate records. What I hope to do with this information is threefold:
a) watch list will include a few stocks like EXPD, ALSI, SBH (from last two llists) and not alway heartstopping picks like STMP,PHCM,SWCM,CMTN.. we've had ALO which was up 3 consecutive days already.
b) have a 'nonofficial' intermediate portfolio that will be tracked weekly by John to see if stock is a sell or can be held longer (i.e. BBOX, SEE, AHAA)
c) formerly present in our Marketgems Manual a chapter or page delineating our tracking system for earnings plays so the 'full time ' worker can see we are not neglecting him or that there is a place for him to profit from Market Gems service in this way. We would then intiate a possible weekly or bi-weekly email if the stocks are looking any important changes are underway in the stock. The benefit we see is that a good portion of these stocks might be triggering buy signals BEFORE earnings, might be held THROUGH earnings after earnings and beyond.. giving this investor a 2-3 lead on the financial magazines that finally find this stock after its up already 10 points.
A case in example... I got an e-mail this weekend from some on line magazine (actually a good one) service saying HLIT is looking good and a whole report about its potential.. well fine WE had it trigger over a week ago, and its been an intermediate hold before then and was on our July calendar already for weeks. |
