***Revised Post... I was experimenting with some new scans for next earnings quarter and/or in next week possible strong stocks that might be pulling back after some good earnings reports and excellent performance. I knew that the stocks below fell into the 98th and above percentile for last quarter eps growth (one that just reported).
By the way the rankings here are significant although I left out some weightings for proprietary reasons I gave the highest rank both absolute and value to Next FY projected earnings so you'll note that the number there is the highest.
I was surprised to see them REAPPEAR Above the 95th percentile in next YEAR's earnings estimates. Don't forget I did a EARNINGS search not even for sector related or added any criteria but the search was for the entire database. Of course this is very preliminary. no Valuation Criteria were scanned for, or Profitability, Performance over time (where all the rankings come in price rank change in 3,9,12 months etc, price rank change, earnings rank change, etc)
Then come the Technical, and Fundamental (balance sheet just one or two there) would have to be added this But EARNINGS is the most weighted of the criteria although it is early. For intermediate hold stocks I like to do a scan on the stocks themselves (the portfolio every once in a while to see if their positition is relatively the same, for those scans I do obviously use a plethora of technical indicators, because although we are holding BEAM we might want to sell it for a few weeks to allow for a pullback and any significant change in technical rank (think of it like an electrocardiogram, you see the chart but the doctor reads a lot more into the picture than you would).. The nice part here is that you don't have to have a great deal of sophisticated financial knowledge of balance sheet appraising and/or technical analysis,
Changes would be picked up by a scan more quickly than just looking at a chart (although you do need a chart as well).
(The real fine tuning that would need to be done in September for the October earnings season).. But its still a very good beginning, in fact that is where all the repeaters come from (i.e. LIPO, KING,EFII, LVCI, CYTC,RFMD, ERTS, all showing the same kinds of scan results quarter after quarter.
Note:
both the stochastics were low (not overbought at all) as was momentum delta.. the negative number (Mm18D simply means that their Momentum histograms are getting less bullish and the lines are falling)indicating possible pullback.. which means any one of the stocks below after pulling back a bit more assuming they haven't already (I didn't check the technicals except for the MACD histogram and stochastics)..
Criteria Criteria Values
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ERG CHG 3-WK a percentage that was above 90
PRICE/SALES RATIO a high percentage
TODAY'S VOLUME high as possible
NXT FY PROJ EARNINGS a rank (above 95th percentile)
MOMTM DLT 18/21/7 WK low as possible
1/30-DY VOL RATIO high as possible
STOCH VAL 14/5 DY between 12.0 and 68.0
EPS % CHG LAST QTR between 98.0 and 99.0 (rank)
1> BEAM - SUMMIT TECHNOLOGY INC .MED
cERG3= 78.0 $/Sls= 7.9 Vol = 1694.6 )
2yPEG= 220.0 Mm18D= -1.2 VL/30= 74.6
St14V= 58.7 %cELt= 700.0
2> LVCI - LASER VISION CTRS INC .MED
cERG3= 57.0 $/Sls= 14.1 Vol = 593.5
2yPEG= 48.9 Mm18D= -1.2 VL/30= 213.9
St14V= 26.1 %cELt= 2200.0
3> OTEX - OPEN TEXT CORP .DSO
cERG3= 50.7 $/Sls= 7.3 Vol = 819.4
2yPEG= 37.3 Mm18D= -0.2 VL/30= 641.1 St14V= 17.6
%cELt= 300.0
4> TWX - TIME WARNER INC .FIL
cERG3= 52.0 $/Sls= 6.2 Vol = 1790.8
2yPEG= 79.6 Mm18D= -0.1 VL/30= 76.3 St14V= 23.9
%cELt= 2050.0 St14V= 50.1 ( 68) %cELt= 500.0 ( 98)
5> TEVIY - TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDS LTD .DRU
cERG3= 52.7 $/Sls= 2.6 Vol = 437.5
2yPEG= 22.1 Mm18D= -0.5 VL/30= 161.2
St14V= 25.2 %cELt= 500.0
6> TXN - TEXAS INSTRS INC .ESE
cERG3= 75.5 $/Sls= 7.0 Vol = 2119.8
2yPEG= 28.9 Mm18D= 0.4 VL/30= 81.2 St14V= 40.8
%cELt= 627.2
7> WEBT - WEBTRENDS CORP .DSO
cERG3= 85.2 $/Sls= 33.7 Vol = 84.0
2 yPEG62.9 Mm18D= 0.0 VL/30= 24.9
St14V= 15.6 %cELt= 300.0
8> BXM - BIOMATRIX INC .MLR
cERG3= 49.5 $/Sls= 8.7 Vol = 111.4
2yPEG= 91.4 Mm18D= -1.1 VL/30= 26.0
St14V= 23.0 %cELt= 520.0
9> MSTR - MICROSTRATEGY INC .DSO
cERG3= 46.5 $/Sls= 11.3 Vol = 138.2
2yPEG= 53.2 Mm18D= -0.3 VL/30= 43.1 St14V= 20.6
%cELt= 400.0
10> USM - UNITED STATES CELLULAR CORP .TMC
cERG3= 77.2 $/Sls= 3.7 Vol = 69.
2yPEG=27. Mm18D= 1.0 VL/30= 72. St14V= 52.8
%cELt= 484.2
11> ZLC - ZALE CORP NEW .RSP
cERG3= 67.5 $/Sls= 1.1 Vol = 91.9
2yPEG= 19.2 Mm18D= -0.7 VL/30= 43.2 St14V= 19.6
%cELt= 325.0
12> BVSN - BROADVISION INC .INT
cERG3= 21.2 $/Sls= 31.3 Vol = 508. 2yPEG= 30.0
Mm18D= -1.1 VL/30= 107.3 St14V= 28.0 %cELt= 300.0
13> DOX - AMDOCS LTD .DSO
cERG3= 74.5 $/Sls= 10.4 Vol = 980.4 2yPEG= 41.7
Mm18D= 3.8 VL/30= 200.2 St14V= 65.5 %cELt= 300.0
14> RFMD - RF MICRO DEVICES INC .ESE
cERG3= 50.2 $/Sls= 18.2 Vol = 505.9
2yPEG= 37.8 Mm18D= 0.9 VL/30= 61.2
St14V= 40.8 %cELt= 400.0
15> HOTT - HOT TOPIC INC .RSP
cERG3= 83.2 $/Sls= 1.3 Vol = 126.1
2yPEG= 22.6 Mm18D= 0.9 VL/30= 164.6
St14V= 39.0 %cELt= 1200.0
16> MOVA - MOVADO GROUP INC .JSW
cERG3= 47.2 $/Sls= 1.1 Vol = 32.5
2yPEG= 19.0 Mm18D= -0.1 VL/30= 108.3
St14V= 15.3 %cELt= 3200.0
I left out the weightings to keep it less complicated.. I also took out a couple of other trendline, and volacity indicators that would also complicate the finding. |
