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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: grok who wrote (67225)8/1/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (2) of 1573908
 
KZ,

<I expect that rambus usage will grow pretty rapidly and reach penetration levels of 30-50% in a few years. >

Now, technologically I like what Rambus has to offer but there seems to be an assumption that the volumes are certain or near-certain. I wonder if that is a true assumption. Would you have this view, for example, if Timna were not there or if Timna were not a success?

It could be argued that Timna could be squeezed between Playstation II and basic PC (with Celeron or Coppermine-128 or Cyrix or National or AMD low-end offerings) and will not EVER become a volume product. Timna may be too old a core to provide some of the gaming performance that would be necessary for this class of devices. So, I personally would not bet on Timna's overwhelming success. Possible but far from a sure thing.

Even on the much touted graphics advantages, I can see graphics/chipset guys integrating memory at 1-T SRAMs or as outside DRAM modules or straight DRAM integration like some people have done to avoid Rambus premiums. Why put expensive memory for the entire PC if one can integrate a much cheaper version with the graphics controller?

In high-tech industry, being near certain about anything that is a year away, let alone years away, is uncomfortably risky for me.

Any thoughts are appreciated because I would love to hear this angle debated.

Chuck
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