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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: grok who wrote (67265)8/1/1999 8:41:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (2) of 1573930
 
KZ,

<During 2001 I guess that Willamette will finally be in production and setting the standard for Intel's highend. Won't 0.13u Timna then replace Celeron? >

Timna, assuming decent execution, will replace some of the Celeron sockets - to what extent, I do not know. Timna doesn't have SSE. If graphics/games ends up being the driver as I suspect it could be in the home PC segment, I do not know if a basic-home-PC will sell without SSE or 3DNow in year 2001. This market is changing very fast - especially with the entry of devices like Playstation II. An argument can be made that what the gaming/second_PC market needs is a processor with a OK integer subsystem and powerful graphics/FPU subsystem. (a K7-lite that keeps the FP as-is and strips down the integer core to the bone might be the right answer here)

<Do you have some bet on with someone or why are you so concerned about year 2000?>

Not really. Having been in this industry for a while, I don't feel too comfortable about what happens more than 12-18 months out. If I see a dollar profit potential 2 years from now, I would probably discount it by 50-75% to adjust for the technology risk - that automatically makes most long-term high tech investments over priced to me because most are valued, like RMBS, as certainty. So, the year 2000 thing is just a good planning benchmark for me. I am just trying to get a grip on what is going on in this biz to make good investment choices.

Chuck
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