Big Bull, good evening,
My two cents worth, from the perspective of Big Oil (I work for one of the smaller integrated E&P's).
Very few of the large companies have the will to push aside company culture in order to effect rapid changes to budget. Most of the E&P's are beholden to year-end reporting and the share holders, and hence are inclined to observe their quarterly plans. When partners are involved, the complexities of deviating from the budget increase substantially.
This is one of my biggest gripes about working for a big E&P. We have prospects on the table which we know we will be drilling in the next 3 years, but we don't have the will to drill them now and suspend them until they're needed - even though, when figuring the deep discounts available over the past few months and including the time value of money, it would be markedly cheaper to do so.
Well, that's life. Many of the majors (mine included) have taken this opportunity to shop the fire sales, like Brazil, and add acreage to the portfolio. But I believe it will be the large independents that stoke the furnace first and begin ambitious programs to consolidate their market share and take advantage of the low rig and service rates before they fully recover.
I look for the independents to be picking up rigs on an ad hoc basis starting around October/November, (that's when I predict a measurable uptick in the utilization rate), then strong and sustained recovery starting around next April.
Regards,
Aggie |
