Dan, et al:
On 7/29, the Barron's GMI was 334.96, up from the previous week's 323.38. With the POG up slightly to 255.60 (7/30), the ratio was up at 1.31. A year earlier the ratio was 1.21.
As has been the case for most of the past year, based on the data referenced in post 10, the ratio continues in the
range of values that strongly suggests the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. However, the fact that
the ratio has been in this range for more than a year suggests that the data referenced in post 10 isn't adequate
statistically and/or that we are experiencing a very unusual period.
There were several interesting articles in Barron's this week. A part of Abelson's column is reproduced in post on the Dutch Bank thread. It covers comments of an expert concerning commodities. His view is summarized in the quote: "The commodity complex is like a great stock trading at a discount to book, and all of sudden there's a story." However, it appears that his primary focus is on commodities other than oil or metals.
In the cover story, Epstein suggests the FED should be restructured, eliminating some of the unnecessary bank. In his economic beat column, he discusses recent activities in WDC and the published drop in GDP to a 2.3 percent annual rate. He explains while the real rate is closer to 5 percent which doesn't auger well of holding inflation in check. He also notes that the SS surplus has resulted in the publicly held debt has dropped from 3.1 trillion in March 97 to 2.8 trillion. Now if congress can just stay divided, we might continue reduce it.
Last, Einhorn, in her Commodities Corner, points out the recent run up in oil prices was partly due to errors in the Government reports on inventories. They aren't as low as reported.
Cheers,
Larry |
