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Technology Stocks : Viador (VIAD) - Enterprise Portal
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To: Walter Morton who wrote (7)8/2/1999 4:12:00 AM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (3) of 294
 
During that 4 quarter period when VIAD was bouncing around and not
maintaining consistent sales growth most people that I follow had
more consistent growth:

Q298 Q398 Q498 Q198 Q299
MSTR 19.9 23.8 27.0 35.7 45.6
BRYO 9.3 10.6 12.4 14.2 15.7
INFA 6.4 7.6 9.2 10.3 13.2
ACTU 4.7 6.0 7.1 8.3 9.8
SGNT 3.7 4.6 5.7 6.5 7.5
VIAD 1.0 .7 1.4 1.2 2.1
Total 45.0 53.3 62.8 76.2 93.9
VIAD's share 2.2% 1.3% 2.2% 1.6% 2.2%

Yes VIAD had pretty good growth prior to Q2 1998, though from a very
low level. Yes VIAD had very good growth last quarter. But looking
at their history one has to ask if they will continue to grow
explosively like last quarter, or will they flounder for a year
while their digest their current growth as they did following Q2
1998. Even if you ignore the bad quarters (and the market never
does), they aren't growing any faster than the other companies I
named, and the other companies are all at or near profitability
and show more consistent growth than VIAD.

The implications of different growth assumptions are very important
as far as pricing VIAD, particularly since R&D + Sales Exp =283%
of sales (norm is about 50-60%). Obviously they need to at least
triple their sales to have any shot at breakeven, and probably need
to quadruple them. If they flounder for another quarter, they can
kiss their IPO chances goodbye. If they can post one or two more
impressive quarters, they should be able to get a decent price.

Good luck,

Carl


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