Re: AOL Subscriber Growth
Subscriber growth for AOL has been on an exponential curve since the company went public in 1992. After reaching the 1 million member mark in 1994, membership quickly doubled to 2 million members in 1995, and doubled again in 1996 to 4 million. By the end of 1997, AOL counted nearly 8 million domestic member, and 8.6 million total members. In June of 1998 AOL had reached 12.5 million members, and recently announced the arrival of its 16 millionth member in February of 1999. Current growth rates should carry AOL to over 18 million members by June of 1999.
Between 1998 and 2001 the number of desktop PCs on the Internet in North America is expected to increase 95% to 57,600,000. In the rest of the world, PCs connected to the Internet will increase 129% to 40,681,000. Even if online service providers (AOL) lose market share to ISPs (Internet service providers: Mindspring, Earthlink, Flashnet), AOL could still see twice as many users in 2001 as they have today. Add to that the relative inelasticity they have experienced in pricing their service, and AOL's access revenues should easily meet future expectation.
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