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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 88.71+1.2%12:45 PM EST
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To: unclewest who wrote (26190)8/2/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: grok  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
Well, I've bought into rambus today. First at 87 1/4 and then at 85 11/16. Be careful since my buying may trigger a crash. :^(

I've made many posting negative of rambus mostly on the AMD thread but I've done this when I see people exaggerating the benefits of rambus. But I believe that with a realistic view of the whole situation rambus is almost a sure winner.

There are also people exaggerating the problems of rambus and when I see this I make a pro-rambus post. So I'm making this post since some people may be unclear as to where I actually stand.

I believe that rambus will be accepted by the market. Not as fast as the most optimistic people believe but I can easily believe it will achieve 33 to 50% penetration within 2-3 years. If it does then it seems to me that the price should be much higher than it is now based on it being a financial dream with incredible profit margin and return on invested capital.

Of course it may be rocky during the next year or two. Look at today. I chose to use it as a buying opportunity. If it gets a big surge up I may sell hoping to buy in again on the next dip.

I see several events in the near future which will be important for the price. First is the Intel Developer Forum Aug31-Sep2. This could go either way. Downside for rambus would be if Intel announces that this will support PC133 with chip sets. I view this as inevitable since the dram makers just won't ramp rambus fast enough to support all the Coppermine volume. (If there is no such announcement then it will be a big rambus win.) But I also expect intel to present performance numbers showing that PCs run faster with rambus. This will be a bogus comparison since they will use PC133 with CAS Latency = 3 while they should use 2 but the press won't understand so rambus will get good publicity which may negate the PC133 chip set support.

Following that is the Camino chip set intro sometime in Sept. Again this will be mixed. The plus for rambus is that this is the first PC chip set designed for drdram. But the negative will be that not so may PC makers jump on it due to high drdram prices and low availability. I don't know which way the press will spin this.

Then comes Coppermine CPU intro in Nov. If intel only supports this with Camino+drdram then only rambus can be used and this will be a big boost for rambus. However, intel may announce some PC100 or PC133 chip set can be used with Coppermine and this will be a big negative for rambus.

So I will be watching closely and keeping my finger near the trigger.

Now I look and see that rmbs has dropped below 83 so I probably caused it with my buy.
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