2130 GMT, 990802 – Washington Faced with Choice Between Africa and Ukraine
A recent fact-finding mission by the UN to determine how arms have been funneled into the Angolan rebel movement UNITA has raised some confusion as to the true motives of the U.S. in the region. On July 29, Robert Fowler, Canadian ambassador to the UN and chairman of the Security Council sanctions committee on the UNITA rebels, presented the results of his fact-finding mission. He pointed out that Ukraine is a chief arms supplier to UNITA. Jane's reported in May that UNITA had received Mig-23 "Flogger" and Mi-24 "Hind" aircraft from Ukraine in exchange for diamonds and the promise of oil concessions. The aircraft were ferried via Uganda before being delivered to the UNITA rebels, and the U.S. would almost certainly have had to approve this action. There are numerous other reports of Ukrainian weapons and mercenaries fighting in African conflicts ranging from Ethiopia-Eritrea (fighting on both sides), to Sudan (fighting for the SPLA), to Sierra Leone, to the DRC, to Angola. The pattern of Ukrainian involvement in these conflicts indicates that, at least initially, Kiev was operating with the approval of Washington.
Until recently, Ukraine's arms sales to UNITA, the SPLA, and SPLA hosts Ethiopia and Eritrea were in line with Washington's support for both the Sudanese rebels and UNITA. However, the eruption of a border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the spread of conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa has caused the U.S. to alter its policy in the region. The U.S. now appears to be trying to contain the existing web of African conflicts and segment that web into manageable chunks. To that end, it is reportedly improving relations with both the Sudanese and Angolan governments. The attempted U.S. policy realignment in Africa is already difficult, but may be made more so if it is undermined by the continuing influx of Ukrainian arms into the region. While the U.S. may be continuing to use Ukraine in order to play both sides in Africa's many conflicts, it is more likely that Ukraine simply cannot change course so quickly.
Washington is now faced with a choice between competing foreign policy goals. As the Fowler report pointed out, 25 percent of Ukraine's workforce is employed in the manufacture of arms. As we pointed out in our 1999 Annual Forecast, Ukraine will be a central facet of U.S.-Russian competition this year. While Ukrainian arms sales hinder U.S. peacemaking in Africa, if the U.S. were to suddenly cut off Ukraine's arms exports to Africa, the effect might be catastrophic for the Ukrainian economy, driving Kiev even further into the hands of Moscow. So, the U.S. appears willing to sacrifice Africa for Ukraine. The real test of this theory will come if there is any movement to use U.S. assets to monitor sanctions. Ambassador Fowler suggested on July 9 that AWACs surveillance aircraft might be used to monitor sanctions-busting by UNITA. It will be interesting to see if any serious effort is made on this front by U.S. policymakers, or if the AWACs spot anything Ukrainian.
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