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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.03+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Smooth Drive who wrote (21164)8/2/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Good Monday Evening All,

Well today our patient, LG's Overall Market Composite Index (OMC) 10 X 30 P&F chart, took a turn for the worse. A new double bottom sell signal at 1620. Its second in a row since topping at 1760 on 7/16/99.

Since the OMC P&F chart gave a High Pole Formation (which 80% of the time leads to a double bottom sell signal) this chart has been all down hill.

                                                     *
1760                                               + X *
1750                                             +   X O *
1740                                           +     X O   *
1730                                         +       X O
1720                                       +     X   X O < High Pole
1710                                     +       X O X O
1700                                   +         X O X O
1690                                 +           X O   O
1680                               +           + 7 *   O < DB Sell
1670             X               +           +   X   * O X
1660             X O           +           +     X     O X O
1650             X O         +           +       X     O X O +
1640             X O       + X         +     X   X     O X O
1630     X       X O     +   X O     +       X O X   + O + O
1620     X O     X O   +     X O   +         X O X +   +   8
1610     X O     X O +       X O +           X O X   +
1600 X   X O     X O 5       X O X           X O X +
1590 X O X O     X O X O X   X O X O         X O +
1580 X O X O     X O X O X O X O X O     X + X *           +
1570 4 O   O X   X O X O X O X O   O     X O X   *       +
1560 X     O X O X O   O X O X     O   + X O X     *   +
1550 X     O X O X *   O X O       O +   X O X       *
1540 X     O   O X   * O           O X   X O X     +   *
1530 X         O X     *           O X O X O X   +       *
1520 X         O X       *         O X O X O X +           *
1510 X         O X         *       O X 6 X O +
1500 X         O X           *     O X O X +
1490 X         O X             *   O X O +
1480 X         O                 * O   +
1470 X                             *
1460 X                               *
1450                                   *

So far it's passed right through horizontal support from the previous bottom at 1690 and now at 1630, as well as the Bullish Resistance Lines at a number of boxes and the Short Term Uptrend Line at 1640.

The next horizontal support will be in the 1580-1590 area and a Revised Bullish Support Line at 1580. The 1st Bearish vertical price objective is 1500. This chart is long term bullish (trading above its Bullish Support Line down at 1390) and short term bearish (on a sell signal at 1620). The Bullish Support Line was formed at the low of 910 which happened on 10/8/98. The unofficial Bearish Resistance Line up at 1740 is in control of this chart.

Remember, LG's OMC Index is a little of this and a little of that with a % added here and a % deducted there -- but, it's very accurate for looking at the entire market. Lower tops and lower bottoms is not a sign of strength.

Take care,

Eric


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