Boy are you wrong!!!!!!!!!......There's a real panic in Taiwan!!Wait for blow out earnings from Intel and Dell. Buy PHTN for LCDs.
MS Office 2000 Models Push Japan's PC Sales to Record High Level
August 2, 1999 (TOKYO) -- Japan's PC sales in the first week of July (July 5-11) reached record high levels in the number of units sold and the value, with both figures about double those of a year earlier.
Sales of PCs in the first week of July increased 14.6 percent in units and rose 14.5 percent in value, from a week earlier, according to a survey conducted by GfK Japan Ltd.
PC sales rose 107.1 percent in units and they increased 104.3 percent in value, compared with the same week a year earlier (July 6-12, 1998).
GfK Japan is an information service company that handles POS data of 55 large discount electric appliance stores.
The average retail price declined by 334 yen to 218,186 yen, from the previous week's 218,520 yen. (115.54 yen = US$1)
On July 9, so-called "mid-summer models" debuted with Microsoft Office 2000 pre-installed (Microsoft Co., Ltd.'s integrated business software). Japan$B%f(Bs summer sales war appears to have peaked with a sudden jump in retail sales. The number of units sold reached a record level, exceeding that of the peak level of last winter$B%f(Bs sales campaign, which occurred in the first full week of December 1998 (Dec. 7-13).
The average retail prices remained almost unchanged. Prices of desktop/tower PCs increased by 2,194 yen from a year earlier, while the prices of notebooks declined by 1,118 yen. Prices of most PCs equipped with Microsoft Office 2000 remained the same as those of "early-summer models," which were equipped with Microsoft Office 97.
Meanwhile, prices of the "early-summer models," with Office 97 installed, declined by about 10,000 yen-30,000 yen due to substantial inventories. The average sales price of the "early-summer models" is likely to rise in the following week.
GfK Japan collects POS data from 55 IT-related retail sales companies centering on high-volume stores specializing in home electric appliances. It covers about 3,200 stores (as of April 1998) throughout Japan.
Nikkei Market Access provides weekly reports of PC sales in volume and value, in cooperation with GfK Japan. The sales data has been based on the same 41 companies (with about 2,000 stores) since April 1996.
The number of PCs sold at the 2,000 stores is estimated to comprise about 10 percent of gross domestic shipments, and when limiting the sales to retail sales channel, the share comes to about 25 percent of such shipments.
nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com.
Intel chipset prices rise sharply on demand spike
By Mark Hachman, Sandy Chen, and Barbara Jorgensen
Electronic Buyers' News
(07/23/99, 06:52:34 PM EDT)
A sharp increase in demand for Intel Corp.'s mainstream PC chipsets caused prices to spike as much as 20% last week, and motherboard vendors fear the shortage will persist until September.
Intel confirmed the scant supply of its 440BX and 440ZX chipsets, products designed for the high-volume corporate PC market. While motherboard vendors initially declined to raise prices of their BX- and ZX-based boards, some said the shortfall may delay product introductions by lower-tier suppliers.
“We're acknowledging a shortage of BX and ZX parts, and we're working quickly to meet that [demand],” said a spokesman for Intel, Santa Clara, Calif. “It's a case where demand for the product continues to be extremely strong. It's a good problem.”
The specific causes of the shortage vary, but of five customers polled, most said an unexpected surge in overall demand-as much as 40%, according to one Asian distributor-has caused prices of the two chipsets to rise since late June. In addition, some worried that problems with the Intel 810, the 440BX's successor, would mean greater reliance on the BX and the ZX. The BX chipset is targeted at mainstream PCs, while the ZX is designed into lower-end systems.
The situation with both chipsets was felt most last week, when demand for 440BX and 440ZX chipsets suddenly increased. Even the predecessor to the 440BX, the 440LX, has experienced a 25% price spike during the same period, according to independent distributor NECX, Peabody, Mass. Prices for the 440BX have increased since June 25, when it was $26.78. Just last week alone, the price jumped from $27.63 to $33.50. The price of the 440ZX has risen from $17.48 on June 25, to $20.50 last week.
“The motherboard demand in the second quarter this year was unexpectedly strong,” one Asian motherboard maker said. “Intel's forecast supply for both chipsets was not able to meet the demand. It usually takes from one month to 45 days for Intel to solve shortage problems, so the shortage will remain till the end of September.”
The Intel spokesman declined to comment on when the company expects to satisfy the 440BX and 440ZX demand, reiterating that Intel is “working quickly” to meet customer orders. Industry sources said Intel is shipping product first to its top-tier, key OEM accounts, forcing second-tier OEMs, some white-box makers, and merchant motherboard suppliers to fend for themselves.
Some motherboard makers noted the chipset shortage two weeks ago, and warned it would begin affecting the supply of their own BX- and ZX-based boards as early as this week. Most said prices of their own high-end BX boards would remain stable, at about $125, while ZX boards should stay at around $70-for now. “The shortage of 440ZX is really serious,” said one executive of an Asian distributor. “It's really tough to allocate the chip. The pricing is there, but you can't find them.”
NECX, which now operates a global exchange in conjunction with Japan's Sumitomo Corp., reports that demand from Far East motherboard makers is "unbelievable,” said Frank Cavallaro, NECX's director of worldwide sales. “Demand is huge for the BX right now, and pricing isn't the problem [in fulfilling demand]. We would be able to sell as much as we can get our hands on.”
Although the 440BX and 440ZX chipsets were designed as a stable, long-term platform for corporate customers, Intel has encouraged customers to transition to the Intel 810, or Whitney, an integrated graphics chipset introduced in late April and designed for the low end of the mainstream arena. But quality problems have delayed the 810, most notably a bug that has affected the chipset's ability to keep correct time.
While Intel, analysts, and even customers initially characterized the problems as minor, an aura of instability surrounding the 810 has surfaced, motherboard makers said. Although the Intel spokesman said the 810 is the fastest-ramping chipset in history, with more than 3 million units produced, analysts said 810 supply is too low for the chipset to serve as a mainstream product.
“The 810 chipset had some quality problems in the beginning, so the market hesitated to accept the chipset and remained using the 440BX and 440ZX,” a Taiwanese motherboard maker said.
“We want to make really sure we have a stable solution,” said a smaller, U.S.-based motherboard supplier. “That's [we started] our first [810] boards in mid-July.”
NECX concluded that last week's price spike might be the first hint of panic buying. “What's happened in the past week is based on everybody wondering whether there would be a fix for the Whitney,” Cavallaro said. “Previously, they were hedging their bets on the BX, but now there's no confidence that the bugs will be worked out, and the BX is the interim fix. ... People have begun to realize that there may not be a new chipset, and everybody's jumping on the BX bandwagon.”
LCD shortage won't ease for months, suppliers say
By Jack Robertson
Electronic Buyers' News
(07/30/99, 05:25:27 PM EDT)
An industrywide dearth of thin-film transistor (TFT) LCDs has already triggered a million-panel shortage in the notebook-PC market this year. And by most estimates, it's only going to get worse.
Panel makers and analysts don't expect increased production from Korea and Taiwan to start easing the supply shortage until late this year or the first quarter of 2000 at the earliest-with some prognosticators predicting the supply/demand imbalance will drag on for 18 months.
Omid Milani, senior product marketing manager for flat-panel display products at NEC Electronics Inc. Santa Clara, Calif., said “an unbelievable shortage of panels is holding back the notebook market.”
Paul Semenza, an analyst at San Jose-based display research firm Stanford Resources Inc., estimated the shortage of 12- through 15-inch panels-the most commonly sought-after size for notebook PCs-has grown to more than a million displays in the first half of 1999 alone. Semenza said the scarcity of displays will stall out 1999 shipments of these panel sizes at 15 million units, although this still represents a 27% increase over last year.
The shortfall in the notebook segment has been compounded by soaring demand for 14- and 15-inch displays for desktop monitors, Semenza added. “As much as 90% of the panel shortage in the second quarter was in 14- and 15-inch panels,” he said.
The shortage of smaller-size notebook panels has been exacerbated because many FPD vendors are focusing production on 17- to 20-inch screens, where profit margins are even higher, Milani said. A sheet of motherglass yields two to four displays of this size, roughly half the rate of the smaller panels.
Major FPD suppliers, including Mitsubishi, NEC, Philips Flat Display Systems, and Toshiba, said panel price increases are spiraling higher. Consensus is that mainstream 12.1-inch notebook panel prices have jumped 66% from Q4 '99 to about $350 today. The price tag for 14-inch panels has shot up 40% to $540.
One source feared the price hikes might become steeper, because Taiwan notebook contract assemblers have been using panel inventory they bought earlier this year at lower prices, which is now mostly exhausted. “The big Taiwan manufacturers will now be coming into the market en masse, bidding up prices further,” he warned.
Korean and Taiwan flat-panel companies are ramping to meet the accelerated demand for panels. Carl Steudle, FPD marketing manager for Samsung Semiconductor Inc. in San Jose, said his company is now expanding Line 3, which just opened a year ago in Chonan, Korea, and will start construction of a Line 4 fourth-generation fab which will launch production in mid-2000. And LG LCD Inc. is completing its Fab 3, which also starts production next year. FPD producers, however, are facing shortages themselves, as deliveries of panel equipment have been stretched out, Steudle said. “All the production expansion in Korea and Taiwan has hit equipment manufacturers with large orders at once,” he said.
So far, the high prices have done little to thwart demand from notebook OEM buyers, which are frantically searching for supply, according to several display vendors. “Mitsubishi is getting calls from OEMs we never sold to before, all asking us to name our price for immediate delivery,” said Dale Maunu, product manager for TFT-LCDs at Mitsubishi Electronics America Inc., Sunnyvale, Calif.
What's more, vertically integrated PC companies once again are tapping the bulk of their own internal panel production to satisfy notebook demand. While these companies are still servicing key external customers, some have jettisoned lesser accounts they were courting heavily just 18 months ago, when the market was in oversupply, sources said.
Bob Brown, president and chief operating officer of Toshiba America Electronic Components Inc., Irvine, Calif., said the Display Technology Inc. (DTI) joint venture between Toshiba and IBM Corp. is now producing panels solely to meet the needs of the two companies. In the market of several years ago, DTI had solicited orders from outside customers. Brown said Toshiba is still trying to supply panels to customers from its flat-panel factories in Japan.
Predictably, some suppliers are trying to leverage the seller's market by bundling in other purchases. Some Asian companies will provide scarce FPD panels only if given the contract to assemble the notebook PC as well, according to industry observers.
And most FPD makers in Japan and Korea report that they will forego their August vacation shutdown to keep production rolling, which could add as many as 14 days of production at some companies.
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