OT t2K - sorry for the delay, I've been trading my little brains out (going long on JNPR - I described my strategy on the NITE board). Re: AOL and AMZN. Yes, you are right about institutions - f.ex. index MFs *must* buy AOL, but a large institutional position in AOL is a double edged sword - when institutions sour on AOL, they unleash such amounts, that the individual investor cannot possibly absorb the shares. AMZN has less of that problem. Now about the shorts. The answer is TIME-FRAME. In the short term, AMZN has always had critical support at 90, so that is hard to break. Meanwhile AOL has less firm support. Re: insitutions could come in as you suggest, but my feeling (from reading various analyst comments) is that they'd rather pick up AOL cheaper - so the support is not there as yet - meanwhile, the individual investor has to deal with this big float under pressure. Longer term, if 90 breaks for AMZN, and the story grows tattered, the road down for AMZN should be amazing - AOL should not decline as fast, precisely because institutions would step in. My conclusion: short term, AOL better short - longer term, AMZN.
Morgan |
