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Biotech / Medical : Neopath (NPTH)
NPTH 0.0006000.0%Mar 7 3:00 PM EST

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To: John Zwiener who wrote ()3/27/1997 6:30:00 PM
From: Cuong Huy Nguyen   of 178
 
Heya John,

Autopap goes up for FDA approval again this September 20something. I think
they'll get approval this time. There has been a lot of press recently
about the inaccuracy about the current technology and I think in a few months
more attention will focus on this industry and the harbingers of this new
technology like NPTH and NSIX. Two other companies I follow are further behind
in their developments for an automated process - DIGE, and ACMI.

I write on the ACMI thread. ACMI is about to get approval for its TraCell product
which helps cytopathologists in primary screening. It probably has about a year to go
before it comes out with integrated fully-automated system like AutoPap, but it is in
the works. Until then TraCell should play an important role in primary screening,
until full automation becomes the norm.

NPTH and ACMI are the only two of the four that are expected to make profits by 1998.
NPTH's 1997 eps is projected to be a loss of ($1.22) per share, with a dramatic turnaround
next year at $0.64. ACMI will lose ($0.19) this year and make $0.06-0.12 next year. Also,
ACMI's 1999 earnings should be around $0.34. I don't have any figures for NPTH 1999 yet.

What is your opinion as to how long it will take before complete automation is
accepted by the industry? Pretty slow I think at first, since there are always
going to be some people who will resist change (namely those cytopathologists who
will be losing their jobs). I wonder which side the womens health advocates will
take? I think political pressure will eventually convince medical practioners and
the FDA to adopt the new technology and you can bet the HMO's will be pushing for a
less expensive way to do pap smears.

cuong
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