John, there is always the possibility that we we'll see a rally into mid to late August that fails to reach the old high and get the real tanking thereafter. this type of action would be consistent with the '87 and '29 precedents. of course the bears have been punished to no end by this incredible bull market - which doesn't change the fact that it takes an enormous leap of faith to actually turn bullish here. the weak market internals and the numerous technical divergences that have accompanied the rally from the october lows are bound to assert themselves in the form of falling prices at some point. not to mention the fact that interest rates are rising and the dollar is plunging, notwithstanding today's bounce. market pundits like Acampora, who was calling for a 15-20% correction in march when the Dow was at 9,200 now insist we go to 13,000. of course that's possible, it would be a classic blow-off. but i am looking at the Nasdaq in isolation, as it is in many respects the true representative of the U.S. economy, and i see p/e's that have already surpassed the worst excesses seen in Japan in the late 80's, which back then were laughed at by many - and rightly so. it is now the other way around, as japanese officials, who know a thing or two about financial excesses, have coined the term "bubble.com". of course WS analysts continue to urge everyone to put his/her money into these horrendously overvalued tech stocks. just look at AOL, nothing but "buy" and "strong buy" ratings all the way from 175. to me it is like, if it isn't over yet, it will be soon.
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