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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Ray Dingledine who wrote (77)5/31/1996 3:24:00 AM
From: Peter R Smith   of 10309
 
The IDC report and some numbers.

No I have not got a full copy of it right now but I am working on it.
A friend is arranging a cconference call with a Wind engineer, My
friend used to port VxWorks to new platforms and has a lot of industry
contacts. During this conversation I will attempt to get some idea of
the market share that wind has. By the way he to thinks Wind has a
very good product.

I have used the IDC report to calculate the average price of an RTOS
shipped as follows.

Year Average price of RTOS shipped

1994 $17.0
1995 $10.8
1996 $ 8.9
1997 $ 7.5
1998 $ 6.9

I don't think the big deals will bring Wind $6.9 gut feel is probably
$3-4. The trend though is for a drop of about 8% per year. At the
same time the CAGR of shipments is 50%. If my business was selling 50%
more each year but only having to reduce margins by 8% ;-)
By the time the unit price hits $1 every TV, microwave, car, phone,
will be using some kind of embedded system.

And it is debateable that margins really apply in the normal sense.
Remember this is paper money. It takes very little extra expense to
ship 1 mil units then to ship 100,000.

The most important thing is that WIND at least KEEPS its market share.
I think that they will increase it however. I am tring to come up
with target figures for WIND revenue, but I still need more info. Stay
tuned!

(If you get bored try a Techweb search with the keyword RTOS)

Bye
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