<< PS I see that the AOl Martyrs on this thread have no other recourse but to attack the
messenger because they cannot refute the message!>>
Rarebird, that has been the modus operandi of the bulls on this thread for at least the last 6 months. Prior to that I don't know because I never really followed the board closely. The invective heaped on me when I first posted that I believed that AOL was headed for the 60s was startling. I remember well one nasty post that chastised me for scaring some weak holders out of their stock during a sharp fall to the 120 area (URL reference on request). And now all you see is the rationalizations that "every time it has had a sharp drop in the past it has always recovered to a new high" etc. implying that therefore new highs over 175 are just months or at most a year or so away. There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
At that time there were perhaps 2 or 3 other bears on AOL who bothered to post. Recently, since the failed rally of a few weeks ago petered out, I notice that more and more you see posts from people who have enough objectivity to recognize a falling stock when they see one.
Personally, I believe that the current shortterm bloodbath is nearly over, and expect AOL to gain some support somewhere in the 80s, and then have another decent rally, maybe even to the 120 area, prior to the next wave down. Longer term, say 4-6 months out, I still believe that the 60s will be reached, and as I have posted before, if you can pick up AOL around 50, I think it would be a good investment for reasonable long term gains on the order of 20-25% per year or so. But much depends on the continued growth of their subscribers and the continued success of their business model, as well as many other factors. And there are no guarantees.
The final lows, wherever they may be, will no doubt be characterized by 90% bearish posts on this board as disgusted holders finally give up and throw their stock overboard near the bottom. It was ever thus.
BP |
