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[OT] Excuuuuuuuze me! Must have had a flashback. Believe me, I know that stone age tools like lush profits are not what is important in todays market that uses models that "discount the long-term future value of companies." Don't tell me, tell those silly "investors" that pushed AMZN down another $6 7/16, EBAY -$8 5/8, CMGI -$5 7/8, YHOO -$4 3/8 today. For the year, the collective "quality" internet group of EBAY, YHOO, AMZN, and AOL show no as in zero net gain [can't even talk about what the non-quality second tier ones have done in mixed company] while stone age Georgia Pacific is up 60% and Alcoa is up 85%. It is fine to own stocks that are discounting the future at the right price. The problem is that speculators were not just discounting future, they were discounting the here-after, ignoring the teensey fact that the future is fraught with unseen pitfalls, and now are paying the price. It was extreme mania pure and simple, no different than others over thousands of years, as human nature does not change. I've said it months ago, and will say it again, many [now I would revise that to most] internet stocks will not again achieve their previous highs. Of course some will...eventually, but it is still a minefield of risk in picking them. No sign that the internet stock bear market is over, which is a pre-requisite to the chosen fews climb of double or triple to get back to where they were just three short months ago . For the rest, the end of the bear market will mean a bounce, then a very long and unprofitable journey in believers accounts. PS. I think the market has some unfinished business with margin calls and or forced psychological liquidation in the accounts of those who barely escaped in May and who believed and paid to high a price for the future [leverage on top of it!], that will have to be taken care of before the bear market ends Mike |
