*url for Telecom NZ cdmaOne news*
totaltele.com
You need to register, which is free. Also, it's worth registering because they email you with the news items each day.
--------------------------------------------------
OT Department, following on from discussion along these lines from a year and two and three ago. Included here, but suggest any discussion move to the Coming Into Buy Range thread.
On the overall markets, I've been wondering for years just what happens when there is a credit collapsing market. My concern was more on the Dow because there wasn't an internut index at the time.
My question was what happens when stockmarkets which have high expectations built in, together with substantial margin leverage, go into a fall. Is it soft on the outside, but hard on the inside or is it firm on the outside and gooey liquid on the inside? To use a life is like a box of chocolates analogy. By that I mean, does the collapse reach firmer or weaker positions as margin calls are made and buyers have to be tempted to buy in a free-falling market?
For a while, it seems that the prices would drop, which would precipitate margin calls, which would precipitate sales, which would precipitate further margin calls, which would cause further falls in price, which would reach a crescendo when the maximum number of margin positions are reached. For example, it might be that the most margin accounts are operated at 30% margin. So, when prices have fallen to the level which causes margin calls on those people, the maximum number of shares would be on sale. There would not be a correlating increase of buyers at that level.
So at that point, there could be a sudden and major acceleration in the price collapse until cash holding buyers decide the bargains are simply too good to sniff at.
I wonder just where those levels are. My guess is that once the peak margin level has been crunched and those masses of stocks change hands, then things would stabilize and the core of the credit position would be firmer.
So, my guess, is firm on the outside, then softening as prices drop, then a collapse at the heavily margined range, then firming again as the margined people are cleaned out. There will be a massive transfer of stock from margined people to Alan Green$pan backers [who hold cash and "Trust in Green$pan"].
Meanwhile, Alan Green$pan, to ameliorate the worst of the carnage and to avoid a general economic collapse, would drop interest rates, flood the markets with SuperDollars, cross his fingers and hope.
Anyway, what's interesting is that the Internut stocks seem set to act as a test of what might happen in the broader markets. The internut index has now halved from the top of the head and if we like to believe that there are TA, herd, lemming or similar ways in which the 'investing' crowd moves, then the Head and Shoulders chart is an indicator. Anyway, common sense says that heaps of sellers who don't know a market capitalisation from a trade deficit will be holding very dodgy positions, from which they will be easily separated.
bigcharts.com
Watching with interest, and trepidation. Trepidation because the Dow and Nasdaq might not be far behind. Unless they get involved in a big way, Alan Green$pan is unlikely to do a rescue of the internut stocks alone. In fact, he'll be pleased because it will be a warning to those invested in other markets to take it easy on the credit addiction and ever-rising stocks.
Mqurice
PS: Sorry to anyone who was really quick off the mark - I put the wrong url up there at first. |
