< Since the inception of the Market which was the better position to hold, Bull or Bear? >
If a person can live in this life forever, then it pays to hold a certain amount of shares in whatever company you deem to be extremely profitable in the future. Last I heard ( though science is experimenting with trying to conquer Death by freezing the human body and reanimating it at some point in the future. Walt Disney had this done. I support this endeavor.), life is still finite at the moment. Meaning: Humans die. In a severe bear market, it could take 15-20 years before you get even if you bought at the top.
Yes, the S@P has progressively moved higher over history. But it is up over 300% percent since the 1994 low, which is unprecedented. It is ripe for a very severe drop. Sorry, I have too much respect for history and for fundamentals to think that this bubble can expand further. It has been a buying frenzy. I've been part of this buying frenzy too for 16 years from 1982-1998. I've been long AOL before and profited handsomely, as well as a whole host of tech stocks. I love technology and especially the Internet.
I see tremendous risk to this market and especially to Internet stocks. I think all this debt will get slowly unwound and it will turn very ugly. Are you prepared to hold through thick and thin knowing that it is quite possible that this Market can decline at least 25-30%, if not more? Or, do you really think it is not possible for this market and AOL, in particular, to stay down for any extended period of time, such as 3-5-10 Years? |
