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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Cory Gault who wrote (67655)8/4/1999 7:51:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1586399
 
Corey,

Re:"The point is the history of the industry as a whole is scattered with companies who have had the best products but not the brand awareness, market prowess, mind share, etc. to secure critical mass against a highly entrenched competitor. If the stock was going to experience a significant Athlon run up it would have by now.....just my opinion."

I certainly can understand your point of view.

Something is definately screwed with this introduction.

And all the kamikaze boys would have to admit that they are worried.

However it is also difficult to see how the price can go much lower.

The rest of the biz is very strong particularly Flash.

So the market has figured that something smells and has discounted success.

And having run up on numerous introductions only to have failure again and again it is not too surprising that investors and analysts have a show me the volume and profits attitude.

If I was to outline AMD stock price 6 months from now my guess would be only a 20% probabilty of significant downside from the current price. The probability is maybe 60% that it will stay in the 16-18 trading range. And maybe 20% probability that they will really deliver 1-2M K7's in Q4 with blended ASPs of $300+ and will even show a profit in Q4.

In the latter case the stock can easily double or triple.

The downside risk is modest and upside seems compelling even in a high interest environment.

Having said all that I am nervously expecting the next shoe to drop!!!

The biggest fiasco I can see would be a K7 bug on the FDIV scale requiring a recall of parts.

Something like that would put AMD in serious financial hurt and probably doom the company and stock price.

Regards,

Kash
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