My feeling is that Apr. expiration could be at 30.
Of course, it might overshoot and then bounce back.
It seems difficult to make something of the 50 calls and the Jan. ones. They are both far-fetched, one in $, the other in time.
I'd rather focus on April.
Granted, April 50 call volume was high (1164) with Open Interest of 6326, and 50 put vol=0 OI=119.
Same month, as of 3/27/97:
Strike vol (O.I.) vol (O.I.)
47.5 call 50 (2090), put 7 (146);
45 call 539 (6237), put 124 (3630);
42.5 call 205 (1248), put 12 (900);
40 call 155 (5923), put 808 (3417);
37.5 call 47 (843), put 42 (2249);
35 call 49 (2093), put 47 (4144);
32.5 call 0 (526), put 40 (1234);
30 call 0 (3714), put 35 (5214)
27.5 call 400 (42), put 410 (771)
25 call 0 (1223), put 0 (2532)
Note 27.5 volume was pecular and almost equal in call and put.
Could be the same player hedging it, as the put volume was in 10 first and 400 was the last size.
I did not follow AOLDF the day it hit 48, but my feeling is that these high call and put O.I.'s were sold open earlier-because of no action on 3/27! The high volume in 50 could be just people trying to catch the last metro-"Better than nothing" kind of mentality, that is to say.
Anyhow, I boldly suggest that she might end at 27.5 or 30 on April expiration. But remember, things are still evolving, it can change any time. Just keep track of these numbers closely.
I warn you that I am at the low end of the information food chain. Therefore these numbers from the internet could cause trouble if they were wrong. Double check and let me know of any discrepancy. |
