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I couldn't agree more that MSFT will not perish, or probably even be injured in any way more than in a slight to Gates' ego. I am not voting, rooting, shorting for AOL's demise, just don't think that courts are going to help. Even if MSFT was dealt a blow, it would be appealed into eternity. Meanwhile, MSFT would probably really get nasty and put the competition under, so that when eventual remedies kicked in, they wouldn't have much to worry about...AOL will exist 10 years from now and will prosper if they stick to their solid approach of branding etc. In some ways, and I know that this may seem ludicrous to many, MSFT's future challenges are greater than AOL's. If the operating system dominance ever is challenged by competitor (not likely) or by obsolescence (possibility), then what is left unless they really reinvent themself. I have confidence that they would, given resources and biz acumen, but it is possible. On the other hand, Talk to your average person on the street and you will find that AOL has brand name recognition so far ahead of any other internet company that it doesn't even have serious branding competition. Ever try to get somebody like me that grew up loving Coca-Cola to switch...just something to think about. Coke is basically a service, nobody really believes that it is better sugar water than Pepsi or RC. Just that it's service (intangibles, undefinable ?) is superior. AOL should follow this model and strive for this type of growth in it's already dominant branding model. |
