Lokk at my favorite chart on this:
techstocks.com
So far XICO is just tracking ATML over the last and current cycle. What this means is that the historical discount that XICO has traded at is being maintained. The 70 month period is so long and the match up so good as to really be significant, in my opinion.
However, IF Xicor will break the 15 year old mold this time, and with its fabless strategy generate really good sales growth and really good margins, the valuation discount to ATML should diminish and the XICO chart line should rise above the ATML one by quite a bit. In my opinion, until then, one can make an argument that XICO has yet to discount the potential of structural changes in the company, and could have a long ways to go.
I would add that I think this is exactly what the phenomenal price and volume action is saying, not some magic pending announcement. In fact, I would guess that if these structural changes are successful, Xicor's remaining move in this cycle will be a continued tracking of ATML
PLUS 50-100% (for the structural effect and narrowing of the valuation difference).
By the way we should get options back before long. |
