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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications
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To: Timothy R. Tierney who wrote (6565)8/5/1999 3:45:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist   of 10852
 
T.Tierney--I don't agree with your time frame "two months to 10 weeks on the outside two months to 10 weeks on the outside to
determine if Loral/G* is a rocket or a dud"

I expect service rollout to start slowly and not earlier than early October, and probably not in N. America until even later. Unless mgmt changes its policy, subscription rates will be reported in terms of billed minutes of use, and not very timely, either. We may not get such info for 4Q99 until Feb2000. And then wait another three months to see MoU for 1Q00.

Bottom line, I expect it's more like 12 months until we really have basis for confidence in the usage ramp-up (three quarters of operation). Of course, by then, if the performance meets the plan, we'll be at least EBITDA neutral, selling handsets at a rate of 100K+/month, and the GSTRF stock will be approaching 100$/share. But the road from here to there will be a rough one, and fraught with peril, IMHO.
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