Rande Is: Excellent post. I saw the NASDAQ tank down 64 points in the early AM but did not have the cajones to buy anything. By the end of the day I was playing the "would have, could have, should have" game about missing a great trading opportunity. However, we're barely into August and have three more weeks of interest-rate paranoia, low volume and volatility and this opportunity will repeat itself (and then some). Between now and Aug.24th, I am going to:
1. Selectively pick off individual stocks (non-internet) that have declined significantly more than other tech stocks on my tracking list (e.g., MFNX, GBLX are quite tempting at these levels).
2. Make a list of the stocks and # shares of each I want to buy.
3. Become fully invested by Aug. 23rd, one day before the Fed meeting and announcement regarding interest rates. This may be premature in some eyes, but I believe the market will begin rallying as soon as the Fed meeting is out of the way, REGARDLESS of whether there is a rate hike or not. By the time we're through most of August, the market will have already priced in a .25 point hike (and then some). If there is a rate hike, the market will stage a relief rally. If no hike, the market will spike up sharply. I do NOT see an interest hike later in the year with Y2K worries on the horizon.
P.S. Just for the record, I do foresee a 1/4 point rate hike because Greenspan will realize that this will be his last opportunity in 1999 to do so. IMHO. |
