SDMI Musings... FWIW...
I think it's highly likely that WAVX is going to end up being central to whatever the SDMI finally recommends and the consumer electronics folks deploy. Yes, I said "highly likely."
Now, that would suck the bad gas if SDMI is something unacceptable to the public. Given WAVX's business model, deployment hardly matters if lots and lots of folks aren't buying.
But, for all the SDMI-bashing, much of which I sympathize with, I think some key facts are being overlooked.
** Ultimately, I, avid music consumer, may NOT have to PURCHASE a special device. Paralleling the "free PC" model, why couldn't Philips and Thompson Consumer Electronics GIVE the Wave-enabled players away... or offer them at very low prices... in exchange for a piece of the ongoing content distribution pie? I grant you, that may be a huge stretch for consumer electronics makers.
** There is going to be no shortage of EXTREMELY attractive content.
As several articles have pointed out, the record companies have lots of top talent under contract. And that probably isn't going to change much in the near future.
** The record industry execs have been portrayed on various MP3 sites as atavistic idiots... who don't give a damn about the artists, etc.
There is some truth there, of course. But, remember, some of these folks are extremely good at spotting trends... in fact, one can argue, that's what they're best at. And, when not spotting trends, then, to use a political term, they are excellent at "co-opting" trends... and making them seem like THEIR ideas. Thus, it would not surprise me, if, at the end of the day, almost ALL of the issues that are being raised as concerns about the SDMI get somehow re-spun and played back to us as something with a catchy hook and an undeniable beat. I think that the way the SDMI SHOULD play this is by delivering a set of recommendations and products that actually deliver more value to the consumer than they can currently get... through new content options... etc. And THAT is part of what makes Wave technology... "simply irresistible."
** What if my portable music device could deliver me "frequent listener" dollars good for my next purchases? What if my purchasing patterns result in special "mixes" delivered to my door... to try before I buy? And, here's something really way out there (and probably a few years off), what if Wave technology could help restructure the relationship between artist and record company?
I'm not sure exactly what I mean by that last question... but... there's a thought in there somewhere.
** All of that said, I don't believe that the SDMI is critical to WAVX's success. It is one giant peach among several.
Just raw speculatin'... Best Regards,
c m
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