Bosco, Michael,
<<Regarding the PRC morphing possibility, I don't know the specific details, but I
think the tug-of-war between centralism and regional powers will continue. I think
the central govt is very concerned about fragmentation for both selfish and not quite
selfish reasons. It is simple psychology that the loss of control is a frightening
experience. On top of that, the disintegration of the USSR doesn't serve a good
example. Unfortunately, the dualistic response is to cramp down.>>
The cycle of a strong central government and fragmentation into regional powers has been the pattern of governments for China since the Han Dynasty (circa 220BC). The Spring and Autumn and the Warring States period preceding that was the only period in recorded Chinese history when independent states compete for hegemony in the Yellow River Basin, then the heartland of China. The negative impact to the economy during this was devastating, by the way.
The paradox of China has been that periods of economic expansion and prosperity co-incide with strong central bureaucratic governments, typically during the rising half of a dynasty (Han, Tang, Sung, Yuan, Ming, Qing, you name it), and periods of economic depression precipitated by internal strife leading to the fall of a dynasty co-incide with the rise of regional powers that eventually grew strong enough to challenge one another and the central government.
That is why the central government is paranoid about the rise of regional powers. The practice in the past has been for central governments to "absorb" talent from the regions to the center, so that there is an "orderly" succession of cliques in power. Contrary to popular belief, Chinese Emperors have rarely wield actual power, it is always the dominant bureaucratic clique that wields the actual power. The Emperor acts as the ultimate arbitrator. It is when no one power clique is dominant that the business of good governance is sacrificed for the need to strive for power, and chaos ensues.
The situation today hasn't really changed. Hence the paranoia of the Beijing government towards an independent Taiwan that is willing to stand up for itself, becaue this would insert a wild card into the current "stable" pattern of power succession on the mainland.
An independent Taiwan, coupled with 2 or 3 strong power cliques striving for dominance in China would be a potent recipe for the break-up of China.
Again, just my $.02 worth.
Best to all
Steve Yeo |
