Hi Joan,
Sorry for the late response.. I was away from SI for a while.
What is your take on the bounce in wheat, beans, and corn prices? Is this just a bounce in the continuing down trend or is it a reversal?
I won't lie... I don't know much <g>..... but my gut feel is that we are (have) commencing a long term bull market in the grains. At their lows in July, the grains were at their lowest point this century, adjusted for inflation. That's not to say they couldn't go lower, but I have looked at some longer term cycles which seem to point upward for the next few years. I've mentioned it before on this thread.... but look at the 30 and 60 year cycles in the grains. Major bottoms -after years of consolidation- occurred in 1939 and 1969... after which, multi-year rises occurred. I think we have a similar set-up right now... so I guess the rest is up to the market to demonstrate. <g>
There is a long term soybean chart posted here on top
geocities.com
To be fair, I have been long term bullish since about last September 98, even though prices are well below those levels. I have been trading long and short along the way, with the understanding that we are in the midst of a major bottoming process.... and after a certain point, the smart money will be long. I suppose the best analogy I can make is to compare the grains now, to stocks in 1982... a market that has gone nowhere to down -for a while- and is about to get moving, and gain interest. All of this assumes my read of the cycles is correct, and I am often wrong. <gggg> If I can answer anything further, let me know. FWIW, talk to you later
Best Regards,
Frank |
