Neurobiological Tech (NTII) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII)

NTII 0.0001000

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Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Apache Indian who wrote (646)	8/6/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: BRAVEHEART	Read Replies (1) of 1494

Hi Gang, Yes investing takes much patience. NTII has gone from .50 to $1.5 in a few months time. That is 200% appreciation. What does that mean about where it is headed. Actually little. Investing is relative. Like a roll of the dice. Each day is different. Perspectives change. Thus the real question is one of valuation & risk. So why has NTI traded to $1.5 & held. No doubt because the "risk" of funding has passed. Certainly not because it is now fairly valued. Fair value is based on potential. We all know the potential of Memantine is significant. NTI"s shareprice has yet to reach fair value IMO. Clearly "if" the data shows significance for the 5 clinical trials NTI will once again trade much higher. My guess is NTI could trade well into the threes maybe four with positive data and a Pharma collaboration. IMO Aug & Sept are lower risk hold periods in awaiting a Pharma collaboration. The stock should continue to trade between $1 & $1.75. Clearly the issue ( risk ) of funding has finally been resolved and is no longer an issue. Again there is some risk over this period relative to MERZ's clinicals. I personally believe the results if positive will have a much more faviorable impact on NTI's stock value than would negative results. If MERZ's data is Neg we may trade back to $1...Positive and we may break $2. The real risk comes in the Fall when NTI's data comes available. Clearly positive results & a collaboration should in turn translate into a fair valuation as a point in time leading into P-3 trials. My estimate is $3.5 If NTI can advance Memantine into P-3 trials I can imagine the stock could realistically trade to between $4 & $6 pre-results & FDA review. So yes NTI is all about Memantine. Sure Xerecept is a second product with potential. If Xerecept advances this too will be additive to NTI's overall valuation. Clearly NTI is undervalued based on Memantine alone hence Xerecept in reality carries little if any risk IMO. Xerecept only offers upside potential when viewed from a long-term perspective IMO. Sure it may create a brief dip if it fails to advance. I seriously doubt that it is much of a factor based on current valuation. Now for some personal accounts. Being as outspoken as others I feel I too should describe my personal trading style. I trade based on both T/A & F/A. If I see what I believe are technical opportunities I will trade based on those factors. If I see periods of added risk or changed expectations I will also trade accordingly. I will try & refrain from saying I purchased such & such or when I sold on this thread. I have sold way too many stocks all too soon. Thus to conclude there is only one clear cut time I refuse to hold any Biotech. That is over a period of FDA review. This is the highest predictable risk period and rarely warrents a hold position. The second highest risk period is at the end of a trial. I have mixed feelings over such periods. Surely it is a period of risk but is less predictive as to timing. Of course the worse scenario is when a key trial is halted unexpectedly. This is unpredictable as to timing & market reaction. NBIX recently lost 20% while SIBIA didn't budge. Of course who knew it would be bought out a few weeks later. Right now I expect to see something on the Inhouse funding in the next few weeks. It should be interesting to see who the players are. The right players & NTI could once again trade accordingly. I imagine MERZ will get it's data in Aug. Crunch the numbers & present it to a few Pharmas. If positive ( my guess is 80% likely ) then maybe we see a Pharma collaboration by mid OCT ( my guess is 80% likely ). Remember we were close to a Pharma deal before then it was suggested the data was soft and that Pharma wanted to see more data. This should satisfy the matter. I reserve the remaining 20% likely in the event any collaboration is on hold till we get NTI's results. As always Biotech events are unpredictable at best. Where there is significant potential there are risks. I have over time suggested to numerous individuals that NTI was way undervalued. Especially at .50 & $1. Clearly there is much more potential. With it comes added risks. I will continue to voice my opinion on the potential & risks to the best of my ability. As John stated this is only my perspective & opinion and I will trade to retain profits based on technicals. I expect NTI's trend to continue in an upward fashion over time. Of course unlike many stocks where the halt of a single product might just mean a minor setback. For NTI it would probably mean the end. Know these risks. I will be here and likely win or lose when all is said & done. Hopefully Memantine proves to treat the several indications targeted. BEST WISHES Jeffrey

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