Berney:" charts chat-N-chew "
>What is interesting to me is that you show the OEX 200 EMA at 640, while I show it at about 624. That is a significant difference...
I'm reading the 200d EMA off of METASTOCK, Berney; the 50d EMA is around ~690.
These "hammers" are tricky. Textbook says they are valid upon confirmation which means, "prices do reverse and go up thereafter" :-/ Thing is, tomorrow could be down, without violating the hammer = reversal sentiment.
In general, you don't want to see the decay after a hammer to go below the body of the hammer's head - for the OEX, that would be today's OPEN around ~675. But often they are still valid so long as their LOW isn't violated - in this case, ~665, as in some kinda "double bottom" test.
What we don't want to see is an OPEN tomorrow with a run-up spike followed by a collapse back down to the OPEN, making either a doji-like "shooting star" or, an upside-down hammer. That makes "hammers" on Thursdays kinda tricky !
Statistically, and in my experience, such actions after a hammer tend to indicate uncertain sentiment - lack of conviction, more often than not - though sometimes they still work O.K. OEX 670 +/-5 is a perfectly good dip for any investor, IMHO, representing about an -8% decline from OEX ~730; as I said, I would have preferred to invest more $$$ into CORE stox below OEX ~655 = -10% with the wind of the 200d EMA at my back !
I did not invest into CORE stox today, fwiw. If this is as low as she goes, and there is no re-test of OEX 670 +/-5, then I missed it.
>My personal account is in T with you. I'll feel more comfortable when we close above $51. In any case, I don't see myself in it for more than 3 more days, and probably less...
wow, everybody's playing Turtle !
well, since we all have the same entry then it's all a matter of exit. I have a 2x size position @ 50-13/16 net break-even (after commissions). I want to sell 1x position at 52.25~53, where the 200d EMA and 14d EMA are on my chart. I want to sell the other 1x position at 54.125~54.75, where there is a little gap and also where the 50d EMA is at.
Depends on the tape... if I see shit like the other day on F; ie., 200s BID x 20,000s ASK, over and over and over - screw it, gimme a bone up and I'm happy out @ 51-13/16 (^_^)
My STOP-LOSS is set to 49-5/16, down a bone and a half.
Like the lady sings, "if you feel my leg, you're gonna feel my thigh, so don't you feel my leg." If we can't hold the line here, T will be at ~47.5 next, and I'll have to ante up another 4x position to add to my existing 2x to stay in the game or, fold 'em -- down 3 bones :-(
good luck to both of us!
... apparently, TM was mowing the lawn again for teenies :-))
-Steve |
